A Perfect Storm: Wrong Thermometry and Wrong Temperature Can Cause Social and Economic Turmoil During a Flu Pandemic
As we head into a flu season where the 2009 H1N1 swine flu is expected to cause increased sickness, hospitalization and deaths across the U.S., something as simple as inaccurate body temperature measurements may lead to social and economic turmoil – and may cause many more deaths.
At the same time that reports estimate that half the U.S. population, or greater than 150 million people, may be affected by the flu this season and the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) recommends that people with influenza remains at home until at least 24 hours after they are free of fever, other reports have shown that approximately 40% of thermometer readings overestimate and 20% underestimate body temperature. The result is a perfect storm with 60% of Americans — or 90 million people – receiving the wrong temperature readings during the flu season.
The consequences of these errors in temperature readings could have severe results. It can cause people who are sick to be falsely diagnosed as healthy, further spreading the flu virus. At the same time, healthy individuals can be falsely diagnosed as having fever and “forced” to remain at home. This can have a serious detrimental effect on our entire health care system and the economy as companies face shortages of healthy workers and consumer spending is curtailed.
Just sorting out which patients to treat and which to send home, for example, could strain our healthcare system. A recent report from the nonprofit Trust for America’s Health noted that if 33% of the population caught swine flu, 15 states could run out of hospital beds at the peak of the outbreak.
Businesses can be affected in two ways. Overall productivity will be reduced simply because there are fewer workers, and businesses that rely on customers, such as restaurants, movie theaters, malls and the travel industry, will be affected if more people, possibly millions, are not able – or willing, due to false fever readings – to go out. This will cause a ripple effect throughout the economy.
Children are particularly at risk because of their parent’s dependence on the only objective emergency warning sign, which is fever, according to the CDC. The other signs are subjective and difficult to interpret, such as fast breathing, not drinking enough fluids, bluish color or irritability. Therefore, wrong thermometry jeopardizes children in two ways — lack of detection, which can lead to complications and possibly death; and false fever, which can expose them to the dangers of infections in a medical setting.
In addition, the military could be one of the greatest casualties of incorrect temperature measurements because they live in close quarters where disease can be easily transmitted. This was the case almost 100 years ago when the first wave of what became known as the 1918 flu pandemic appeared in military camps causing an enormous number of deaths.